Limited foresight

Back in January, a friend asked me to tell him, in 240 characters or less, what was going on with Australia's climate policy. Here's my response:

Australia has a Multiparty Climate Change Committee, which will probably receive excellent submissions and throw them out in favour of a hacked-together update of the CPRS that gets the backing of the Greens and Indies sometime this year.

I give myself 7/10 on this one. The MPCCC has turned out a proposal that is based on the CPRS, but the updates are greater than I was expecting. However, there is still a bit of a piece-meal character about the Clean Energy Future proposal e.g. the exclusion of petrol, paying power stations to shut down.

[UPDATE]

The same friend has challenged me to update my prediction, again within 240 characters. Here goes:

The ETS will pass before 2012, with minor tinkering possible but unlikely. The other CEF policies will pass by mid 2012, so long as Labor hasn't imploded over something else by then. Debate will turn to complementary policies (e.g. RET)

He gave me 7/10 on my first prediction, too, btw.